This presentation outlines six possible scenarios, options, and strategies for the development of Ukraine’s (as well as, to lesser degree, Georgia’s and Moldova’s) security situation, during the coming 5-15 years, i.e. as long as Russia’s current regime is likely to exist. They are:
1) continuation of the current gray zone status of Kyiv, Chisinau and Tbilisi;
2) Ukraine’s and Georgia’s neutrality as a result of a Western-Russian bargain;
3) Ukraine’s, Moldova’s and Georgia’s EU accession;
4) Ukraine’s and GeoNATO membership;
5) Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Major Non-NATO Ally status;
6) creation of an Intermarium coalition of post-Soviet NATO member states and Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova (as well as, perhaps, Azerbaijan).
Dr. Andreas Umland is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv, and General Editor of the book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” published by ibidem Press at Stuttgart and distributed outside Europe by Columbia University Press.