Andreas Umland “The Six Futures of Ukraine: Competing Security Scenarios for a European Pivot State”

This presentation outlines six possible scenarios, options, and strategies for the development of Ukraine’s (as well as, to lesser degree, Georgia’s and Moldova’s) security situation, during the coming 5-15 years, i.e. as long as Russia’s current regime is likely to exist. They are:
1) continuation of the current gray zone status of Kyiv, Chisinau and Tbilisi;
2) Ukraine’s and Georgia’s neutrality as a result of a Western-Russian bargain;
3) Ukraine’s, Moldova’s and Georgia’s EU accession;
4) Ukraine’s and GeoNATO membership;
5) Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Major Non-NATO Ally status;
6) creation of an Intermarium coalition of post-Soviet NATO member states and Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova (as well as, perhaps, Azerbaijan).

Dr. Andreas Umland is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv, and General Editor of the book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” published by ibidem Press at Stuttgart and distributed outside Europe by Columbia University Press.